Rankings changes every August - Test |
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MalhotraRaj84 
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Joined: 13 April 2009 Location: India1 Online Status: Offline Posts: 2204 |
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 Topic: Rankings changes every August - TestPosted: 11 May 2011 at 11:42am |
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Back in July '09 Aussies had 128 pts placed at #1 spot, As August came they slipped to 4th spot with 116 pts overnight.Whoa!
Yeah, exactly at that time Aussies had lost 2-1 Ashes to England, but this sudden steep drop was not just because they lost to England , but it was combintion of ranking rules and Ashes fate.
A simple explanations on rankings as per ICC
Every time the ranking is calculated from the August which is 3 year old + till the completioin of 12 months of current year
So for example , Current month is May '11.
1st year - 50% weightage for - Aug '07 to July '08 [Oldest year]
2nd year - 50% weightage for - Aug '08 to July '09
3rd year - 100% weightage for - July '09 to July '10
4th year - 100% weightage for - July '10 to till current month ( This extends till July '11) [Newest]
So, Aussies had a Double whammy during that period which pulled them to ground.
Now, what will happen when we enter 1st Aug 2011 ? The Oldest year will be dropped and all points will be calculated from Aug '08 onwards (i.e 3 old years full + Counting till next August '12 with similar logic of weightages )
Where does this leave your favourite team guys ? Double Whammy or Unexpected rise or Stagnant?
Edit : The above is explanation for Test Rankings for Test. Edited by MalhotraRaj84 - 11 May 2011 at 11:47am |
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MalhotraRaj84
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Joined: 13 April 2009 Location: India1 Online Status: Offline Posts: 2204 |
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Posted: 11 May 2011 at 11:56am |
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So let me do an analysis on where India might go this August '11
India is going to miss these
Aug '07 : Final drawn match against England
Nov '07 : 1-0 victory over Pakistan
Dec-Jan '08 : 2-1 Loss to Australia
Mar '08 : 1-1 Drawn Series against SA
July '08 : Fist Match loss to SL (Next match in July-Aug '08 , Final in Aug '08 band )
This effectively means that India is going to further get rid of their old iffy performances and add upon most recent performances.I am not sure what will happen about the Ind-SL series which SL won 2-1, otherwise India will not have any lost series in New rankings this August (Assuming that India does not lose to England and WI
 )So its a
 for India this August. What's your score guys? |
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MalhotraRaj84
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Posted: 11 May 2011 at 12:12pm |
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Eng : http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/team/1.html?class=1;spanmin1=01+Aug+2007;spanval1=span;template=results;type=team;view=series |
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Mikey
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Joined: 28 March 2011 Location: Australia Online Status: Offline Posts: 949 |
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Posted: 11 May 2011 at 1:33pm |
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Is this spam?
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Andrew_Wood_CW
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Posted: 11 May 2011 at 1:34pm |
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I don't think so..
I think it's his observations on something - but i am lost
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Mikey
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Posted: 11 May 2011 at 1:41pm |
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Oh I see. Are you a statistician Malhotra?
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MalhotraRaj84
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Posted: 11 May 2011 at 3:13pm |
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No I am not a Statistician Mikey. The first post explains how points are calculated by ICC .
Andrew, it's not my observation, yes its bit confusing but after reading the entire PDF that is what I gatherered
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Mikey
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Posted: 11 May 2011 at 3:27pm |
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Okay
 Just saying, because I'm taking an Econometrics unit at Uni and I don't know if I want to look at anymore numbers!! Ha ha.
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MalhotraRaj84
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Posted: 11 May 2011 at 4:19pm |
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Econometrics , hmm sounds complicated.All the best mate. |
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sam_ahmed
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Posted: 11 May 2011 at 6:38pm |
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It's not just the year that is dropped, but what also matters are the years for which the weightage will be reduced. So it will be a little compliated and I will leave it to the ICC to compute.
One thing which I didn't knew though is that they take last 4 years into consideration for the ICC Test Rankings, I was thinking it is just 3. For ODI's they take last 3 years, I'm quite sure.
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God is a better planner... so whenever u'r plan fails, cheer up... God has a better plan for you!
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MalhotraRaj84
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Posted: 11 May 2011 at 7:07pm |
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Yes ODI is calculated on the basis of mininum 2 years to max 3 years ,
For ODIs Current year (i.e from Aug '10 - till data) weightage is unity.
For Aug '09 to Jul '10 weightage is 2/3rd
For Aug '08 to Jul '09 weightage is 1/3rd
In similar way for Tests when we hit 1st Aug 2011, we will have just last 3 years calculations. Then 4th year gets added up till July 30 2012.
In my opinion (for Tests) Ind,Eng and SL points are going to surge higher with newer rankings, while SA is going to go a bit down.Aus will lose ground further as the period of Aug '07 to July '08 was very good for them will not be counted.Though weightage is only 50%, still it will count to an extent and cost them a bit.
Keeping that in mind Ind - Eng will be much more important , any slip up could have adverse effect on the rankings as latest year and previous years have high weightage. Edited by MalhotraRaj84 - 11 May 2011 at 7:08pm |
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sam_ahmed
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Posted: 12 May 2011 at 5:42pm |
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Considering Pakistan, Their Test and ODI ratings both should go up but only a little, PAK will have to do well in the future series in order to climb up the rankings.
India should do well in both tests and ODI's, I'd expect them to beat WI in the upcoming series while the series against ENG should be a cracker of a series which could go either way.
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God is a better planner... so whenever u'r plan fails, cheer up... God has a better plan for you!
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MalhotraRaj84
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Posted: 12 May 2011 at 9:06pm |
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As I have said in other threads too, England's chance is remote as far as series victory is concerned.I really can't imagine how India can lose a Test series. I'd put chances as 50% on drawn series, 40% chances on Indian series victory while 10% for England series win.
I am expecting a grassy bouncy pitches for most of the matches.
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spin wizard
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Posted: 13 May 2011 at 4:30am |
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I'm with mikey here - being an accountant myself, I see way too many numbers to even try understanding this.
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In troubled times, being philosophical helps a great deal, it helps you to remain sane and not do any further damage.
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vote4peace
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Joined: 23 February 2011 Location: India Online Status: Offline Posts: 380 |
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Posted: 13 May 2011 at 8:09am |
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Appreciate the effort and time Raj has taken to bring this forward. Though I ended up exactly where I started when I tried to decipher it. Could ICC make it any more complicated. I mean what happened to the good old Win-Loss (maybe of the current and previous year)than the 50% roobbish.
Pardon my ignorant opinion. |
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I distrust a camel.. and anyone else who can go a week without a drink.
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vote4peace
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Joined: 23 February 2011 Location: India Online Status: Offline Posts: 380 |
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Posted: 13 May 2011 at 8:30am |
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Yes true India stands to gain the most by this measure. And come august they could very well end the cricket year as No.1 for second time in a row, unless England decides to crash the party come this fall.
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I distrust a camel.. and anyone else who can go a week without a drink.
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MalhotraRaj84
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Posted: 13 May 2011 at 8:46am |
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I see most of the calculation method to be fine except that once every August we might see huge changes in rankings which seems foolish. They have done the right thing in giving 100% weightage to Current year and Previous to current year , while giving 50% weightage to 3rd and 4th year old results seems logical. However they could have bettered it.
ICC would have done much better and meaningful, if the calculation was a moving average
of always 48 old months with differential decreasing weights for old years.I'd suggest something like this
0 - 12 months old results - 100% weightage
13 - 24 months old results - 75% weightage
25 - 36 months old results - 50% weightage
37 - 48 months old results - 25% weightage
This would not cause sudden rise or fall of a team ranking every August.
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vote4peace
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Posted: 13 May 2011 at 9:04am |
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I would also like to bring in a suggestion, one that Afridi had mentioned recently. More weightage for away wins. Don't think thats the case in the current system.
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I distrust a camel.. and anyone else who can go a week without a drink.
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