South Africa in New Zealand (2012)

Kiss of death yet again as Amla goes tamely to Vettori , cutting and caught off the edge at slip by Taylor.  160-5 and New Zealand will feel they can get through them now - Boucher in and then not much to come !

Great day for NZL and a pretty shoddy showing by RSA. Could have been far worse to be honest. Against more disciplined bowling, Smith wouldn't have got into double figures the way he was batting and Rudolph would have been out LBW too had Bracewell not over-stepped. Still, a lot of work for RSA to do. If they get to about 250, I still fancy them to turn it around. With their bowling attack and NZL's really weak batting line-up and long tail, I can easily see NZL getting bowled out for under 200. 

RSA marginal favourites from here. Martin won't last long in the morning and with scores effectively level and NZL having to bat last, RSA should fancy their chances. Also, how good is Philander? He is so immaculate with his line and length and seems to get prodigious seam movement. He is going to be a major threat in England too.  

This is what Test Cricket is all about.  Should be a cracker of a final day tomorrow, just hope the weather holds up.  You'd have to say it's highly unlikely that NZ could win it, but never say never...

I wouldn't say it's 'highly unlikely'. True, RSA have the edge currently, maybe. But unless NZ start dropping, they have an even chance of struggling through.

What a disappointing end to a well-poised game and a fascinating Test match. RSA will be most disappointed since they were easily favourites to win had the full day been available. Nevertheless, there are still positives for both sides and areas for concern too.

NZL Positives: Kruger van Wyk was very neat behind the stumps, despite not affecting a dismissal, and his 36 in the 1st innings were crucial runs at a time when RSA were in the ascendancy. Also, Bracewell is continuing to look like a good wicket-taking bowler and Ross/Brendon both seem to be in good touch.

NZL Areas for concern: Southee is the major worry - he doesn't seem like picking up a wicket and isn't much of a batsman either. Nicol looked completely out of sorts against Philander and Morkel and despite battling in the 2nd innings, he doesn't look capable of handling it consistently. I imagine this will be a very difficult series for him, unless Brownlie is fit and replaces him, which would then force Brendon to open.

RSA Positives: The middle order all look in good form, Boucher added some runs to gain some confidence and Smith, despite looking very ugly doing so, also made a 100. Rudolph is a fine batsman and it was only a matter of time before he scored some substantial runs. I think he will be an excellent addition for RSA at number 6 because he is a fluent stroke-maker but also has experience opening the innings so can negotiate the 2nd new ball. Steyn wasn't brilliant this match (don't know how much his toe affected him) but the seamers look a handful and Tahir bowled with control in the 1st innings. He should become more of a threat in Hamilton in the 3rd and 4th innings if the pitch starts turning more.

RSA areas for concern: Alviro Petersen is the only real chink in the armor. His performance in the South African 2nd innings was appalling. It showed he has no desire to battle hard and grind the runs out, opting instead to play a shot a ball. Unless just play a T20 knock were his specific instructions, and I highly doubt they were, his innings was unacceptable to justify opening the innings for a side aiming to become number 1. The unfortunate thing is that I just can't see any viable replacements for him atm. Everyone else's place is pretty much sealed for the coming years (except Boucher who will retire after the England series) but the other openers slot is a big concern. Petersen isn't a long-term option - he just isn't good enough.

On the Boucher replacement issue, RSA have messed up here. They have given a central contract to Tsolekile when other keepers like Kuhn and Vilas are absolutely miles ahead of him. Nothing against the guy but it will be truly unfortunate if Tsolekile starts playing Test cricket for South Africa whilst other younger, more talented keeper-batsmen remain kept out.


Edited by BackwardPoint - 11 March 2012 at 5:22am

Isn't Puttick already 32 or something around there? It's time they look to a real young prospect who can be in the team long-term because the opening slot is not something you want to fiddle around with. That's the main issue I have with Tsolekile also, aside from the lack of relative talent, is the age. He's 31, he'll probably give you four more years and then they will go to Vilas who will also be 31 by that time and he'll give you four years  and then they will go to Quinton de Kock and he'll give you six or seven years. It doesn't make sense. Just give it to Vilas and say OK, we are backing you to be our keeper for the next 10 years or give it to a young talent like de Kock and say if this works well initially, you can be our keeper for the next 15 years. You can't just chop and change every few years. 

Also, I wonder if RSA have any plans to get du Plessis into the Test side. He has been in excellent form in FC cricket lately and he has looked very assured in the ODI games. I don't see how they'll fit him in though because he can't open and the middle order is secure. Only Rudolph looks in any danger and Duminy is 2nd choice number 6.

Finally, on to NZL, they have dropped Southee and either Gillespie, Arnel, Ellis or Nethula look likely to take his place. I will be very interested to see how Nethula goes if picked, he troubled Amla in that one ODI and I wonder if he can do the same in the longer format.

They might not want to play de Lange and Morkel in the same XI because they are similar types of bowlers. I think they will play Dale anyways so long as he isn't troubled greatly by injury. A Dale Steyn at 80% is still easily the best in world cricket. I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't play.

Why push Rudolph to open when he has had difficulty there lately and is seeming to fit in nicely at number 6 (2 fifties and 1 hundred in his last 3 innings). He is a natural strokemaker and pretty decent against spin, it's better for now he stays at 6 while he is enjoying success. They have to find an alternative to open.

Well, that was one of the worst collapses I have seen. To go from 133/2 to 133/7 on a benign surface is just ridiculous. The bowling was accurate and probing as always but that period has probably cost NZL the match. They did well to pick up Smith and Steyn to leave RSA on 27/2 but RSA are still in a very good position here, despite the 2 early wickets. The pitch is flat, Kallis and Rudolph are coming off hundreds, Amla and de Villiers have been in fantastic form throughout the tour and Boucher got some very handy runs in Dunedin. They should make hay tomorrow although if NZL can limit SA to a total under 250, they are very much in the game. Can't see it happening though.

South Africa were fortunate to get any sort of a lead after the top order fell apart ,only de Villiers making a major contribution with 83.  New Zealand had them 80-odd for 6 with Gillespie taking 5 wickets on his return to the test side. That they couldn't knock over the tail says a lot about their attack , Morkel , Philander and Tahir all making decent scores to push SA to 253 all out.  In their 2nd dig Philander and Steyn knocked over the brittle top order to reduce the home side to a paltry 7-3 !  Their was some sort of recovery before Taylor was lbw to Steyn by an inswinging yorker that hit him on the full.  NZ 65-4 at the close of day 2 and still 3 runs adrift , surely SA will run through them tomorrow and finish this before tea.
           

Yep , I've never thought much of Gillespie either Sam.  Some of his wickets were rather gifted - Kallis nicking a legside halfvolley to the keeper when hitting it for 4 was much easier!  In fact batsmen on both sides have played some awful shots in this series - my pal Grame Smith's dismissal was another howler - an uglier a shot you'd battle to see !

Is this guy Vernon Philander some kind of a super hero??? The amount of wickets he's got in his breif career so far is mind boggling, I've never seen anyone, anyone, get so many wickets in such short time before.

Philander just can't do anything wrong just now - he really has the golden touch!  Two 10 wicket hauls after only 6 tests is quite something , his control is marvellous and he bowls with a lot of thought. The ball he bowled to the wicketkeeper that he left was great thinking - 5 away swingers and then the one that went the other way and took off stump was terrific !
             NZ were poor though and showed little fight , Williamson apart.  I can't see them winning the final test , in fact I can't see them drawing it either unless the weather intervenes.  The way that Smith and Amla raced to the target was ominous - I expect SA to score big next time.

It's pretty close between RSA and ENG. RSA have a better middle order and a better pace attack. ENG have the edge when it comes to the spinner, the batting ability of the tail and the batting ability of the wicket-keeper. I'd say ENG take it overall though because they have one great opener in Cook and one good opener in Strauss whereas RSA have one great opener in Smith and a very ordinary opener in Petersen.

Against NZL, this won't be that much of a problem. The rest of the batsmen can cover it up and still add way more runs than NZL can muster. In a very tight series against ENG, where there is little room for a weak link, the lack of runs from the openers could be the difference.

Originally posted by sam_ahmed ENG v RSA should be a thriller of a series this English summer, but I'd surely put RSA as favorites.

    It'll be a close contest Sam , but I guarantee that England will be the bookies favourites simply because they're at home.  I expect Smith to have a torrid time against Anderson and Broad , hopefully exposing the middle order early.  No doubt that the English openers are a better pair and it'll be crucial for Cook and Strauss to get them off to a decent start. I'm a tad based , but I'll take the home side to win 2-1.

        Footnote :  Let's not hijack this thread with talk of the Summer's cricket fellas !