In a nutshell .... England will win
The top order of both teams is struggling and both can think out of the box. If Roy slips down the batting order, as suggested by Bayliss, Denly might open. But, Root also has to get back at 4 to get his rhythm back. Who do you then bat at 3?
For Australia, Usman Khawaja could have opened the batting, but with Smith unavailable, Cameron Bancroft might get another chance. That said, if I was in the Australian management I would play Marcus Harris instead - is a solid bloke and puts a price on his wicket, just what the Aussies need at the moment. I would play Starc for Cummins, but looks unlikely.